Helsinki is forecast to continue growing almost as fast as earlier. According to the basic alternative of the latest population projection made by the Urban Studies and Statistics Unit at Helsinki City Executive Office, Helsinki’s population will be 820 000 in 2050. According to the “rapid growth” alternative of the projection, it would be no less than 880 000.
The new population projection for Helsinki and the Helsinki Region extends to 2050 and the one for Helsinki’s districts to 2034. Both contain separate forecasts for the Swedish-language population.
Annual population growth in Helsinki is expected at 6,700 on average well into the 2030s, then gradually turning slower with rising numbers of deaths – although not as much slower as in Statistics Finland’s new projection for the reason that, in the city’s projection, more dwellings are expected to be built than earlier in Helsinki.
Falling birth rates reduce the numbers of small children, while those of school children and pensioners increase
Over the next five years, the number of small children is forecast to decrease as birth rates fall. The number of 7-15 year olds, on the other hand, rises rapidly up until the mid 2020s, by even more than 1,500 a year.
With the large post-war age groups getting older, the number of 75 year olds or older is starting to grow rapidly, by as much as 3,000 per annum in the early 2020s. The number of people of working age is forecast to continue to grow by 3,000-4,000 per annum up until the 2040s, but gradually only the over 50 year olds will be increasing in numbers. A large proportion of population growth will come from immigration.
The Helsinki by district forecast
According to the forecast by district for Helsinki extending to 2034, population growth will be most substantial in the large housing developments currently under construction. The population is expected to grow by 13,000-16,000 each in the Kalasatama area, the Jätkäsaari-Hernesaari zone, Kruunuvuorenranta and the rest of Laajasalo, as well as in Pasila. In Vuosaari, too, the population is forecast to have grown by even 9,000 by the year 2034.
Other important population growth areas include Lauttasaari, Kuninkaantammi, Malmin lentokenttä, Herttoniemen yritysalue, Oulunkylä, Etelä-Haaga, Myllypuro and Mellunmäki, where populations would grow by 3,000-5,500 each.
Forecast for the Swedish-speaking population
Helsinki’s Swedish-language population of 36,500 people has grown by 1,335 in the 2010s, and is set to grow by, on average, 130 per annum, reaching 38,000 in 2034.
Both small children and school children are expected to increase in numbers. The number of Swedish-language children is increased by the fact that children of families where the father is Swedish-speaking and the mother has some other mother tongue than Swedish are, today, predominantly registered as Swedish-speaking.
The numbers of Swedish-language residents are forecast to grow in, especially, the Southern, Central and Southeast major districts. By 2034, the Swedish-speaking are set to increase by over 750 in Southern, by 600 in Central, and by 540 in Southeast major district. The housing developments in Jätkäsaari, Kalasatama and Laajasalo are, particularly, expected to attract Swedish-speaking people as well.